Oct 26 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
FTSE SLUMPS TO DECEMBER 2016 LOWS
It was seen as a key test for this session and it has been breached: the FTSE is now trading below 6,866 points, falling back to December 2016 lows.
This is turning out to be the index's worst month in ten years and it's having its worst day in four months.
(Julien Ponthus)
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THIS COULD REALLY HURT SWISS STOCKS (BUT IT'S UNLIKELY) (1445 GMT)
ING just issued a timely reminder that the consequences of the European Union and Switzerland failing to reach a new treaty could be dire indeed for Swiss stocks.
The EU's executive commission wants progress on a treaty before it renews permission for Swiss and European equity traders to access each others' markets beyond 2018.
Such a scenario would definitely hurt, ING warns.
"No need to say that this threat is extremely strong for a global stock market such as Switzerland. Without this access, the Swiss financial system would be in great difficulty, and the consequences for the Swiss economy would be significant", ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier writes.
We gladly admit that this issue was well below our radar until now but it seems we are not alone, ING notes.
"Firms don't really seem to be worried for now, and we don't expect a discernible impact on GDP", Charlotte de Montpellier says, adding that "the EU is likely to grant a new provisional equivalence of one year in January, to avoid any interruption of financial transactions".
To find out more about this issue read our September story: https://reut.rs/2z4iJCe
(Julien Ponthus)
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SELL-OFF CHEMISTRY (1411 GMT)
Earnings revisions are definitely looking bad, with analysts downgrading their forecasts at their fastest pace since 2016, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.
"Some dark clouds have appeared on the horizon, with earnings revisions recently turning significantly negative globally", which "increases the likelihood of sell-offs" UniCredit strategists warn.
Another indicator that things could turn for the worse is selling-price expectations in the chemicals industry, which are used as an earnings indicator for cyclical stocks, they note.
They are, sadly, down and "suggest that a slowdown in earnings is imminent", UniCredit says.
(Julien Ponthus)
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WHAT HIGH YIELD IS TELLING US ABOUT THE SELL-OFF (1340 GMT)
BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP)'s chief economist notes that volatility in high yield corporate bonds has not matched that in equity markets, which is unusual.
Indeed, equities and credit usually react to the same threats, be it a recession or a rise in interest rates. So what's this telling us? William De Vijlder has 4 hypothesis: (the following is copied from his report)
1) corporate bond investors are complacent, which begs the question why
2) changes in the outlook for interest rates and growth have not been the driving factor behind the equity market swings
3) equity investors are far more jittery and, in comparison to high yield bond investors, tend to overreact to macro news
4) equity markets are driven by worries about individual company earnings rather than by macro developments
(Julien Ponthus)
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A LITTLE BREATHER FROM U.S. GROWTH (1320 GMT)
This could have been a major turning point for the worse if U.S. GDP data had been weaker than expected but on the contrary it turned out to be better.
The good news hasn't changed the sour mood on the continent's trading floors but has nonetheless taken about 20 basis points off the downward trend on the STOXX 600.
U.S. futures have also reduced losses but so far this clearly ain't no game changer:
U.S. economic growth slows less than expected in third quarter Ponthus)
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EARNINGS SEASON: WHAT'S THE DAMAGE? (1235 GMT)
We noted earlier that analysts have been downgrading their earnings estimates for MSCI Europe at their fastest pace since Feb 2016 - which doesn't bode well for the rest of the earnings season.
It looks like companies are going to have to really impress in order to drive share price moves, and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) strategists note investors have been feeling this season is a "false start". Earnings have been revised down for all sectors apart from commodities (see below).
Here are some of the negatives that have been keeping investors on the sidelines, wary of buying the dip:
* The average earnings surprise has been +0.1 percent equal-weighted - below the historical average of +1.5% - and ex-Financials the market surprised negatively -0.2%
* Less than 20 percent of companies reported earnings 5 percent or more above market consensus
* October is the third worst-performing month since the global financial crisis
* Those that disappointed have been punished. GS calculates on average companies that reported below-expectations earnings fell 4.7% relative to their sector
Interestingly, the strategists reckon large misses early in the season may encourage investors to anticipate disappointments in the rest of the sector, leading to potentially smoother reactions later on.
So perhaps the worst of the damage has already been done - only time will tell.
(Helen Reid)
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NOT QUITE PANIC LEVELS YET - BUT CLOSE (1128 GMT)
From BAML's "The Thundering Word", interesting data on how deep in bear territory global stocks are.
Their key finding is that stocks are oversold, "close to prior panic levels" but crucially not there just yet:
(Marc Jones and Julien Ponthus)
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THE WORST MONTH SINCE 2011? (1113 GMT)
Just a short while ago, European shares were set for their worst month since August 2015, now it's looking more like August 2011. We're currently down 8.7 percent on the month, Aug 2015 saw an 8.4 percent fall, and Aug 2011 was a 10.5 percent drawdown.
In the grander scheme of things there's only been 14 months as bad as October 2018 (so far) in the last 30 years - as you can see below in the monthly chart.
Which means we're in the top 4 percent as far as bad months go!
(Julien Ponthus)
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CANNABIS GETS YOU HIGH, EVEN IN A SELL-OFF (1017 GMT)
Roughly 90 percent of the STOXX 600 is in negative territory but that hasn't spoiled Danish cannabis firm StenoCare's STENO.TE stock market debut.
Its shares have more than tripled in value this morning, worth remembering next time a company decides to cancel an IPO and lamely blames it on "adverse market conditions".
It's been said for a while now that cannabis could be the new blockchain in terms of stoking a market frenzy and it seems the craze is spreading.
Pot stocks are hot and not only in Canada, which just became the first Group of Seven nation to legalize recreational cannabis.
We've already used this illustration (taken from the twitter account of GAM fund manager Paul McNamaraon) but hey, a second time can't hurt:
Pot is hot! Shares in Danish cannabis firm StenoCare surge on debut MARKETS-Is cannabis the new blockchain? nL8N1WS4AE]
(Julien Ponthus and Ritvik Carvalho)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: SEA OF RED ON TECH TREMORS, EARNINGS ANXIETY (0800 GMT)
The STOXX is set for its worst month since Aug 2015 as it sinks down 1.1 percent this morning in a broad selloff after results misses from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) renewed anxiety about how fragile this tech-fuelled bull market might turn out to be.
Results-wise it's a triptych of terror for European investors: So far three main negative trends have emerged from company results: higher raw material and wage costs, the impact of tariffs, and a slowdown in China.
No surprises then that analysts are downgrading their MSCI Europe earning estimates at the fastest pace since Feb 2016, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
Car parts maker Valeo follows in the footsteps of auto peers with a warning on tougher European emissions rules and slowing China sales - driving its shares down 17 percent while peer Faurecia falls 6.9 percent. paper and packaging maker Viscofan has only just started trading and plunged as much as 22.5 percent after warning it would miss its full-year guidance. Reid)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR: STOCKS TO TUMBLE, VALEO SINKS ON PROFIT WARNING (0653 GMT)
It looked set to be a day of heavy losses for equity investors with European futures down sharply – 0.6 to 0.9 percent - after U.S. futures tumbled following results from Amazon and Alphabet– prompting renewed concerns about the dominance of tech in this market cycle.
Car parts maker Valeo could be the biggest faller of the day, indicated down 10 to 15 percent after its results missed estimates by 22 percent and it slashed guidance for next year by 11 percent. The warnings echoed Daimler's and others in the auto sector flagging disruption from tougher European emissions tests and slower sales in China, and the sector could be bruised as a result.
Stronger results from British Airways owner IAG (LON:ICAG) could help the travel & leisure sector which has been under pressure with airlines warning of fuel costs rising.
With some analysts citing a report Brexit talks are in deadlock, Britain's FTSE 100 will be a focus although sterling was unchanged on the day. Lender RBS (LON:RBS) said it had taken a 100 million pound impairment provision to account for greater economic uncertainty, the first concrete sign Brexit is clouding the outlook for banks.
Investors will also be digesting the impact on healthcare companies, including Roche and Novartis, of Trump's plan announced overnight to create a global pricing index for prescription drugs based on lower prices paid in other countries. the Europe-listed pharma names, Roche, Ipsen, Grifols and UCB have the biggest exposure to the U.S. Medicare Part B according to Goldman Sachs. One trading desk saw Roche falling 2 percent on the news.
(Helen Reid)
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FUTURES DOWN SHARPLY AS TECH SELLOFF, BREXIT DEADLOCK SAP RISK APPETITE (0617 GMT)
Futures have opened sharply lower, suggesting it's going to be a pretty heavy fall for European stocks after U.S. stock futures tumbled overnight on Amazon and Alphabet results.
A Bloomberg report that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's Cabinet is not close enough to agreeing a way forward for top level Brexit negotiations to resume is likely to add further uncertainty to UK markets. Reid)
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EARLY MORNING HEADLINES ROUND-UP: RYANAIR, VALEO, LAFARGEHOLCIM (0610 GMT)
A profit warning from French auto parts maker Valeo VLOF.PA - its second in three months - will underscore mounting concerns in the automotive sector about the impact of tougher European emissions tests and slowing sales growth in top market China. may get a lift after signing a preliminary contract deal with Belgian cabin crew and pilots as the budget airline aims to avert further strikes that have grounded planes and disrupted travel for thousands of customers. for action in the construction sector after LafargeHolcim, the world's largest cement maker, became the latest building materials company to warn of higher costs. The company reported consenus-busting Q3 earnings, but lowered its profit expectations due to rising fuel and raw materials costs. week German rival HeidelbergCement (DE:HEIG) trimmed its profit guidance, sending its shares down as much as 10 percent to a near four-year low.
In the chemicals sector, BASF posted slightly lower-than-expected quarterly profits and reiterated its full year guidance. from the onslaught of earnings, there is some IPO activity with shares in Danish cannabis oil firm StenoCare debuting, aiming to take advantage of a recent surge in investor interest in a substance that is still banned or restricted in many markets. bank Ibercaja has been in touch with advisers on a potential IPO, sources said, part of a legal requirement to protect the financial health of Spanish savings banks. Cars Q3 income falls due to launch costs, higher tariffs Caixabank Q3 net profit down 27.6 pct due to Repsol (MC:REP) sale manager Amundi reports higher Q3 profits beats expectations with 8 pct rise in Q3 core profit CEO Ermotti won't rule out M&A, says options are limited deals ready truck business Traton for stock market listing Ambev squeezed by Brazil competition, Argentina inflation receives UK approval for Brexit restructure open to offers for its $1 bln stake in Sunrise - CEO stake sale sparks merger talks among German public sector banks - sources eyes divestments of non-core businesses - handelsblatt newspaper Mason)
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EUROPEAN MARKETS HEADING SOUTH AGAIN (0525 GMT)
Any hope of a sustained recovery after yesterday's modest recovery across European markets will be dashed, with the market's facing further pressure at the open today, taking their lead from Asian and U.S. markets overnight.
FTSE 100 is expected to open 64 points lower at 6,940, DAX is expected to open 117 points down at 11,190 and CAC 40 is expected to open 62 points lower at 4,970, according to David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK. (Josephine Mason) *****
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http://reut.rs/2y3Bc4f MSCI Europe earnings revised down sharply
https://tmsnrt.rs/2RipSq6 pot
https://tmsnrt.rs/2RgMM0K worst
https://tmsnrt.rs/2Rbl0Ti STOXX monthly
https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ri2SaG panic
https://tmsnrt.rs/2RfQrMs GS earnings revisions sector chart
https://tmsnrt.rs/2ORrA4W bof
https://tmsnrt.rs/2ORmVjd juju
https://tmsnrt.rs/2OPphiB chemistry
https://tmsnrt.rs/2OTXu0N swiss
https://tmsnrt.rs/2OPzvQ1 ftse
https://tmsnrt.rs/2OMZmIm
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