The first half of the two stage ECB decision has come through with the central bank cutting its deposit rate deeper into negative territory but maintaining its lending rate in positive territory. On the next EUR has started to bounce back while European indices like the DAX and CAC 40 have given back much of their overnight gains. Clearly the street has been looking for more from the ECB from all the dovish talk of the last few weeks. The pressure’s now clearly on ECB President Draghi’s press conference at 8:30 am EST to deliver enough stimulus goodies to satisfy high market expectations.
US stocks have bounced back overnight but essentially remain stuck in a sideways trend as traders await tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report and this month’s FOMC meeting. USD had been picking up on growing speculation the long awaited first Fed rate hick this cycle may arrive this month. The USD Index has slipped back under 100.00 while gold has rebounded on the ECB rate news but this could change again over the next hour.
A positive ADP payroll report yesterday continued to build the case for a hike along with comments from Fed Chair Yellen. She indicated that the labour market continues to improve, inflation can pick up as the oil crash effect fades and that the fiscal drag of lower government spending has run its course. She favours starting rate hikes sooner and going gradually over waiting and having to raise rates faster. She agreed with Fed Governor Brainard that the neutral rate is likely to be lower this cycle and indicated that even after a rate hike the Fed Funds rate will still be very accommodative. .
Perhaps most importantly, she echoed comments from New York Fed President Dudley that rate liftoff is a positive signal that the economy has grown strong enough to support one. Today, we may see if Fed governor Fischer, the third member of the Fed’s Big 3, mentions the positive signalling effect. Last night San Francisco President Williams, a voter this year, indicated he would prefer to see liftoff sooner rather than later.
CAD has also been strengthening overnight with traders responding positively to the Bank of Canada’s decision to not cut interest rates, seeing the lack of panic as an encouraging sign. CAD has been particularly strong against EUR and GBP with GBPCAD (the “Carney cross”) falling back under 2.00 once again. Canadian bank earnings this morning were better than expected once again which may keep up interest in the sector in today’s trading. The loonie may also see traders position ahead of tomorrow’s Canada Labour Force Survey.
Crude oil has also been active overnight. Oil plunged yesterday following an increase in US inventories and talk that Saudi Arabia was against cutting production at tomorrow’s OPEC meeting. Talk Saudi Arabia would be willing to cut if other OPEC and non-OPEC producers cut production as well has helped WTI to bounce back, but it remains stuck below $40.00, this time confirming the breakdown. This morning reports have circulated suggesting the Saudis have denied any interest in cutting production, so it’s all clear as mud. With so many rumours, trial balloons and denials floating around oil may remain volatile through tomorrow’s OPEC meeting potentially creating significant swings and trading opportunities.
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