Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Thursday as the market waits for direction from a federal report expected to show a much bigger than usual weekly storage build.
Traders noted that lack of movement came despite forecasts for less cold weather next week than previously expected but more cold during the first week of December.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.553 per million British thermal units at 8:02 a.m. EST (1302 GMT).
The premium of January futures over December NGZ19-F20 , meanwhile, were on track to fall to their lowest since February 2008 for a second day in a row.
Analysts said utilities likely pulled 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 15, their first withdrawal of the November-March heating season.
That reduction compares with a withdrawal of 109 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 32 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the decrease would cut stockpiles to 3.643 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.5% below the five-year average of 3.698 tcf for this time of year, erasing the small storage surplus built up over the prior five weeks.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST on Thursday.
Earlier this year, in March, the amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average. But record production has allowed utilities to inject 2.569 tcf into storage since April 1, turning that big deficit into a small surplus during the week ended Oct. 11.
Analysts said stockpiles will likely return to a surplus over the five-year average during the next month or so as rising production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage.
Gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday from 94.4 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 94.7 bcfd last week and a record high of 95.2 bcfd on Nov. 18.
Meteorologists forecast the weather over much of the Lower 48 states would transition from warmer than normal levels now to colder than normal starting around Dec. 2. That turn to colder weather is later than previously expected. On Wednesday, forecasters expected average temperatures to drop below normal levels starting around Nov. 27.
With less cold coming next week, data provider Refinitiv cut back on its forecast for average demand in the Lower 48 states to 108.7 bcfd during the week of Nov. 24 from its previous forecast of 110.3 bcfd. That compares with demand of 107.4 bcfd this week.
Traders said they expect heating demand to jump during the first week of December if the weather turns much colder as is currently forecast.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants dipped to 7.0 bcfd on Wednesday from 7.4 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico held at 5.6 bcfd for a second day in a row on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.6 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
In the spot market, next-day gas at the Southern (NYSE:SO) California citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL rose to its highest since March for a third day in a row. Temperatures in some cities in Southern California are expected to be about five degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) cooler than normal on Thursday, according to AccuWeather.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 15
average
15(Forecast 8(Actual)
Nov. 15
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
341 U.S. GFS CDDs
6 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
102.8
102.7
102.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
100.9
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
116.3
107.4
108.7
104.5
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
39.25
48.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
30.34
39.60
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
23.67
20.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
42.90
38.16
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
46.75
40.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
54.50
44.50