Quiver Quantitative - In an unexpected maneuver to support the volatile global market, Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their unilateral oil supply curtailments until the end of the year. Surpassing the market's anticipation of merely an additional one-month extension, this decision resonates with the concerted efforts of the OPEC+ members to stabilize the industry amid dwindling supplies and escalating demands. Saudi Arabia has committed to prolonging its production reduction of 1 million barrels per day, maintaining the output at around 9 million barrels a day, which marks the lowest production level in several years, sustained over a six-month period. Simultaneously, Russia has decided to continue its export cut of 300,000 barrels a day, a move disclosed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in a distinct statement.
As global crude markets constrict with demand surging towards unprecedented levels, the price rally observed during the summer seems to be regaining momentum, even amidst the growing apprehensions regarding economic growth in China. This strategic move orchestrated by Riyadh and Moscow propelled a 1.54% surge in Brent crude, elevating its value to $90.37 a barrel, a threshold not surpassed since November. Saudi Arabia, the stalwart leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, reiterates that this voluntary cutback initiative will undergo monthly reviews to potentially deepen the cut or augment production, fostering “the stability and balance of oil markets.”
However, this intervention by the OPEC+ alliance has not been received well globally, especially by the major consuming nations who are witnessing a spike in fuel demand as it approaches record highs, and concurrently observing a depletion in inventories. Critics argue that this initiative, although in favor of stabilizing the market, might incite an inflationary uptick, imposing a financial strain on consumers and potentially hampering the global economic recovery that is gradually gaining traction. Despite the criticisms, Saudi Arabia seems unwavering in its strategy prioritizing price over volume, a stance echoed by Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at SEB.
The firm stance of Saudi Arabia on its current strategy is evidently not without repercussions. The Kingdom has been subject to the most significant downgrade in economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund, primarily due to the considerable dip in sales volumes. Nevertheless, this seems to be a sacrifice the kingdom is prepared to make, possibly necessitating oil prices to hover around $100 a barrel to finance the ambitious initiatives spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This scenario sheds light on the intricate balance between stabilizing the global oil market and fostering economic growth, delineating the complex dynamics at play in the global petroleum industry.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative