(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
CHICAGO, January 25 (Fitch) A variety of challenges including online
competition, reduced mall traffic and spending shifts to consumer services will
continue to constrain the overall performance of many leveraged retailers,
despite growth in consumer spending, according to the fifth edition of Fitch
Ratings' 'High Yield Retail Checkout' report.
Fitch expects consumer spending will grow 3-4%, in line with the 3% expected in
2015. Department stores, which serve as anchor tenants to major regional malls,
and categories such as consumer electronics, toys, office supplies, grocery,
and, more recently, apparel, are facing the most competition from online
retailers and discounters.
E-commerce sales currently account for approximately 14% of retail sales but
almost 50% of retail sales growth. Fitch expects online sales will grow in the
low teens over the next couple of years and surpass $300 billion in 2016, while
sales excluding online will grow at a modest 1.5%-2%. An intense promotional
environment is therefore a permanent reality as retailers fight for a share of
this modest growth.
Issuers with positive trajectory include Burlington Stores, Inc.; J.C. Penney
Company Inc.; Kate Spade & Company, and Levi Strauss & Co. These issuers should
continue to see growth in both top-line and EBITDA, and see further improvement
in their credit metrics over the next 12-24 months.
Issuers with negative trajectory include Sears Holdings Corporation; Claire's
Stores, Inc.; Toys 'R' Us, Inc., and 99 Cents Only Stores LLC, which will
continue to face significant pressure on their businesses. J.Crew Group, Inc;
The Men's Wearhouse, Inc., and Neiman Marcus Group LTD LLC have seen reductions
in sales and EBITDA, but liquidity is comfortable in the near term.
Fitch Ratings' 'High Yield Retail Checkout' report provides a comprehensive
analysis of the leveraged finance retail sector, including company profiles of
the 23 largest high-yield retail and apparel companies. Each profile contains
Fitch's assessment of the business and financial profile, and a detailed capital
structure, debt organizational chart, and covenant analysis for the following
companies:
:
99 Cents Only Stores LLC
Ascena Retail Group, Inc.
Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. (The)
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Claire's Stores, Inc.
Dollar Tree (O:DLTR), Inc.
GNC Holdings Inc.
Gymboree Corporation (The)
Hanesbrands Inc.
J.C. Penney Company, Inc.
J.Crew Group Inc.
Kate Spade & Company
Levi Strauss & Co.
L Brands (N:LB), Inc.
Men's Wearhouse, Inc. (The)
Michaels Stores, Inc.
NBTY, Inc.
Neiman Marcus Group LTD Inc.
PVH Corp (N:PVH).
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
Sears Holdings Corporation
SUPERVALU Inc.
Toys 'R' Us, Inc.
The full report 'High Yield Retail Checkout' is available at
'www.fitchratings.com'. Fitch's 2016 outlook report for the U.S. retail sector
is also available.
Contact:
Monica Aggarwal
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0282
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall St.
New York, NY 10004
Media Relations: Alyssa Castelli, New York, Tel: +1 (212) 908 0540, Email:
alyssa.castelli@fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
High-Yield Retail Checkout (Comprehensive Analysis of Major High-Yield
Retailers)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=876832
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS.
PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK:
HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING
DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S
PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND
METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF
CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE
AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF
CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE
SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS
SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED
ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH
WEBSITE.