If you’ve glanced at the hefty price tags attached to single detached homes in Toronto, you might find yourself humming along to the Barenaked Ladies’ classic hit, “If I Had a Million Dollars.” However, when it comes to Canada’s competitive real estate market, that sentiment doesn’t evoke the same sense of whimsy as it once did when the song came out in 1988.
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After all, even with a seven-figure sum in your bank account, those buying a single detached house in the city will likely not be able to reach a mortgage-free status. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s March 2024 report, the benchmark price of a single-family detached home in Toronto is now $1,708,800. Houses in the city have crossed the million-dollar average since 2021, after a staggering 17% increase since 2020.
Toronto’s $1 Million Housing Market in 2024
As we enter the fourth year of homes selling for an average of over $1 million, those in the know of the city’s competitive real estate have come to terms with the high price tag. But how long will it be until we see the $2 million home become the norm? It might be sooner than you think.
Looking at the past two years, average home prices in 43% of Toronto’s neighbourhoods have surpassed $2 million.
We calculated the average rate of increase in Toronto homes over the past decade. Using this figure of 5.6%, we project Toronto homes will reach an average selling price of $2 million by 2034.
However, interest rates play a big part in pricing. As rates come down, home prices go up. In the case that rates do begin declining this year, we can anticipate a corresponding price increase in the market overall, meaning we can reach this multimillion-dollar average home value even faster.
For those purchasing a single detached home in spring 2024, it’s becoming increasingly common to find that even the most affordable neighbourhoods reach well past the average $1.1 million home. For instance, in the neighborhood Rockcliffe, Smythe, Keelesdale, and Eglinton West the average single detached price reached its peak of $1.6 million by February 2023. It’s still considered to be one of the most affordable neighbourhoods to buy a single-family detached house in the city.
Even High Park-Swansea, Roncesvalles, and Parkdale neighbourhood, which ranks as the most affordable neighbourhood within the list of the city’s most expensive areas to buy a home in Toronto, had average home prices exceeding $2 million by February 2022. While there were occasional dips towards the $1.8 million and $1.9 million mark, prices have consistently remained above $2 million since June 2023.
What $2M Can Buy in Toronto Right Now
On the other hand, if you’re shopping for a single-family detached home among Toronto’s most expensive neighbourhoods, a $2 million home would already be considered a steal, saving you $100,000 below the average. When it comes to the two most affluent neighbourhoods, in the city, Rosedale and Moore Park and York Mills, Bridle Path, and Hoggs Hollow, have witnessed prices skyrocketing well beyond $3.6 million, with some even surpassing $4 million since 2019.