Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so.It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher...

Following stronger-than-anticipated retail sales, US Treasury yields escalated as investors contemplated the Federal Reserve's potential rise in rates later this year. The Fed’s minutes from...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

US wholesale inflation rose more than expected last month. July registered a 0.3% month-on-month increase in Producer Prices (PPI), exceeding market expectations of 0.2% and marking the most...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug....

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.19% on Thursday, peaking for the first time since November 2022, but retreated significantly on Friday, ending at 4.04% (+8 basis points over the week) in...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Government bonds experienced a sharp decline after the US economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter and the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark...

The Federal Reserve is poised to resume raising interest rates this month after keeping them unchanged in June. Traders anticipate a boost of a quarter of a percentage point, but some speculate that...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

The most recent data release unveiled a moderate 0.2% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the preceding month, following a slight 0.1% upturn observed in May. Furthermore, the...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...