Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

U.S. Treasuries ended the year roughly at the same place they began, concealing some wild moves for the 10-year benchmark in 2023. Its yield remained virtually unchanged year-over-year, at 3.88%. Yet...

The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...

The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the...

By Benjamin SchroederWhat a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party. But...

By Benjamin SchroederThe surprise from the FOMC was partly the extra 25bp implied cut added to 2024, but it was more the lack of pushback from Chair Powell on the 2024 rate cut narrative. He almost...

The average 2024 Wall Street S&P 500 forecast is for a gain of 6.50% next year. In the past, a 6.50% expectation, while slightly lower than historical averages, was a no-brainer when choosing...

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

The yield on the US 2-year Treasury rose almost 18 basis points for the week to 4.73% reinforcing the yield curve inversion as the yield on the 30-year Treasury was down 8 basis points to 4.31% and...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...