Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The most recent data release unveiled a moderate 0.2% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the preceding month, following a slight 0.1% upturn observed in May. Furthermore, the...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...

Treasury yields surged again after fresh data signalled that the U.S. labour market remains piping hot, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve could push interest rates higher and for longer than...

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since early March, once again putting a...

The US 10-2 year Treasury yield spread widened again (-95 bps) after the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up from 3.74% to 3.77% while...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Despite a rebound on Friday after jobs data topped expectations, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 10 basis points over the week to 3.70%. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates for the tenth time in a row, extending its 14-month crackdown on stubborn inflation and bumping the federal funds rate to a target range of 5 to 5.25%....