Goldman Crunches Data to Pick the Best Trades for a G-20 Rally
Bloomberg
Published Nov 28, 2018 08:53
Updated Nov 28, 2018 10:13
Goldman Crunches Data to Pick the Best Trades for a G-20 Rally
(Bloomberg) -- It’s no secret that global trade tensions have spurred market volatility, which means this week’s G-20 meeting is likely to offer both peril and opportunity for investors.
The gathering in Buenos Aires, which will include a much-watched dinner between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping amid heightened trade tensions, offers one of the year’s last remaining potential catalysts for a big move in markets. So, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). looked at previous trade-related stock moves to figure out what might be winners this time around.
“We see an opportunity in the options market for investors to express a view that trade news could be more constructive than feared by buying calls on the stocks that have lagged,” Goldman strategists led by Katherine Fogertey and John Marshall wrote in a note Wednesday. “If this scenario does materialize, we see the potential for shares that have been most exposed to trade news to trade higher, benefiting buyers of calls,” they said, offering the caveat that they “are not making a call on the outcome of trade talks and the G-20.”
The Goldman strategists identified about 20 stocks that have shown unusually high volatility around seven periods of trade news since March, and have sufficiently liquid options. A call that’s 5 percent out of the money is cheapest on eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY)., Stanley Black & Decker Inc (NYSE:SWK). and Fluor Corp (NYSE:FLR)., they said, with companies like Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT)., Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Huntsman Corp. also making the list.
On average, stocks in that group have lagged the S&P 500 Index by nearly 40 percent since March 21, but one 5 percent out-of-the-money call option costs just 3 percent, the strategists said. They noted that call buyers risk losing the premium paid if shares close below the strike price at expiration.
Sector exchange-traded funds might also be good places to try trading the G-20 meeting, as some industry groups have shown more volatility than others around trade news, Goldman said, recommending the purchase of calls on industrials (ticker XLI), materials (XLB), semiconductors (SMH) and technology (XLK) funds.
“Calls on certain country ETFs (i.e., China and Emerging Markets) as well as S&P 500 could perform well if trade talks are constructive in the coming days,” the strategists added.
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Written By: Bloomberg
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