Morning Bid: Geopolitics, oil and payrolls make for a busy day

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Alun John.

It is an unusual start to a first Friday of the month as, with Brent crude oil above $90 a barrel and driving a risk-off tone in markets around the world, investors are not solely thinking about U.S. non-farm payrolls.

Let's not overstate it. They still are thinking a lot about the always-crucial jobs data, due at 0830 ET (1330 GMT), but after all three main U.S. stock indexes fell by over 1% on Thursday, while Treasuries rallied, it is not the only thing on their minds.

Overnight chin-stroking has pinned the blame for the risk-off tone on Brent crude, which settled at over $90 dollars a barrel on Thursday for the first time since October on developments in the Middle East. It is holding above that level in the European morning.

Israel is bracing for the possibility of a retaliatory attack for Monday's presumed Israeli air strike on an Iranian embassy. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran's embassy compound in Syria, which killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel.

Asian and European shares both traded around 1% lower on Friday. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures are all up about 0.2% suggesting a more stable open, though the S&P 500 is still down 2% on the week, which, if sustained, would be its biggest drop since October.

Also taking some blame for Thursday's fall were hawkish remarks from policymakers including Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari who said that at the Fed's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.

High oil prices won't help the inflation fight.

Nonetheless, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 5 basis points on the day, as the geopolitical jitters sent investors to the safe-haven asset.

PAYROLLS

And then there are non-farm payrolls, which are expected to show U.S. jobs growth slowed moderately in March to 200,000 new jobs, while wage gains remained elevated.

As well as March's number, investors are also watching out for revisions to previous month's data, as past changes have been significant - Treasury yields fell a month ago after February's jobs report, partly because it revised down January's stonking figure of 353,000 jobs to 229,000.

Friday's data is also expected to show the unemployment rate remaining below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such stretch since the late 1960s.

The data will be important as it comes at a time when investors getting a bit jittery about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.

We've seen this movie before, as both March and May were once seen as the Fed's start date. Friday's data and next week's U.S. CPI will help decide whether June will go the same way.

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This could cause some ructions in markets, particularly in Japan where authorities' threats to intervene directly in currency markets to prop up the weak yen have left the dollar unable to break past the 152-yen level, which traders see as something of a line in the sand.

"The risk is that today’s U.S. payrolls report pushes USD/JPY sharply higher which in turn triggers an actual intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance," said currency analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday: