Wednesday, July 25: Five Things Markets Are Talking About
Dean Popplewell | Jul 25, 2018 09:15
Euro equities have found some support, following Asian stocks as earnings season continues, although trade tensions remain to the fore ahead of today’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker.
Most G10 currency pairs trade in a tight range awaiting today’s development from the U.S.-EU meeting. In fixed income, most U.S. Treasuries prices have edged a tad higher along with EU government bonds.
Markets are struggling to build on Tuesday’s upbeat session as trade relations worries between the world’s biggest economic powers return to the fore.
Elsewhere, the AUD (A$0.7419) has had a mixed reaction with G20 currency pairs after inflation data missed estimates last night, backing the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates at a record low. The pound (£1.3155) is currently on to gains initiated by Prime Minister Theresa May taking control of Brexit talks.
In commodities, crude prices are higher, supported by lower inventory levels.
On tap: As the week continues, more corporate earnings come on line, while the ECB’s monetary policy will be the markets focus on Thursday. On Friday, Trump and his economic team are increasingly convinced the GDP numbers will be strong – he expects Q2 GDP to rise to as much as +4.8%!
1. Stocks get the green light
Overnight, Japanese stocks rallied for a second consecutive session, supported by gains in steelmakers and metal producers, as the market welcomed China’s pledges of a more forceful fiscal policy.
The benchmark Nikkei share average rallied 0.46%, expunging a significant of Monday losses on hearsay reports that the BoJ may adjust its policy at next weeks monetary policy meeting (July 30/31). The broader Topix gained 0.47%.
Down-under, Aussie stocks underperformed as the major banks faltered again following a soft CPI print. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%, with only the resources sectors showing a meaningful gains, supported by higher commodity prices. In South Korea, the KOSPI struggled overnight, barely getting back into positive territory. The benchmark fell 0.3% to move back toward its 14-month lows. Drug stocks were a noted sore point, while tech stocks eliminated those declines.
In Hong Kong, stocks rallied overnight led by the energy sector as investor sentiment improved on signs that the PBoC is loosening monetary and fiscal policies to prevent a domestic economic slowdown. The Hang Seng index rose 0.9%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprise (CEI) also gained 0.9%.
In China, equities ease after three-straight days of gains. The blue-chip Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 ended down 0.1% while the Shanghai Composite Index also eased 0.1%.
Get The App
In Europe, regional bourses trade mixed amid another busy day for earnings.
Indices: STOXX 600 -0.1% at 388.0, FTSE -0.6% at 7659, DAX -0.2% at 12662, CAC 40 +0.2% at 5444, IBEX 35 -0.3% at 9742, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 21,897, SMI (CS:SMI) +0.1% at 9016, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%
2. Oil rises as U.S. crude inventories fall, gold higher
Oil prices remain supported after U.S. data yesterday showed that domestic crude inventories fell more than expected last week, easing worries about oversupply.
Global benchmark Brent crude was up 50c, or 0.7% at $73.94 a barrel, after gaining 0.5% yesterday. U.S. light crude is 5c higher at $68.57, having risen nearly 1% in its previous session.
API data yesterday showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to July 20 to 407.6 million barrels. Consensus was expecting a decrease of 2.3 million barrels.
Dealers will take their cues from today’s DoE report (10:30 am EDT).
Ahead of the U.S. open, gold prices have inched higher as the ‘big’ dollar held steady ahead of today’s U.S. and EC meetings. Spot gold is up +0.2% an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery are 0.1% higher.
3. Yields play in a tight range
Most sovereign bond yields continue to consolidate as dealers search for fresh impetus to head in a new direction. The economic calendar provides no new hints ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.
However, today’s meeting between EC Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.S. President Donald Trump could fuel further trade concerns, while cross-market themes and the lack of market liquidity can still provide erratic price moves.
The yield on U.S 10-year Treasuries has dipped 1 bps to 2.94%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has fallen 1 bps to 0.39%, while in the U.K., the 10-year Gilt yield has decreased 1 bps to 1.264%.
4. FX markets trade sideways
The FX market trades in a tight range ahead of the today’s key Trump/Juncker trade talks stateside.
The EUR/USD (€1.1703) is slightly higher, but contained within this months trading range. EU data continues to take the back-stage ahead of tomorrows ECB policy decision.
Note: The ECB is widely expected to leave its key policy settings and guidance unchanged after it announced its plans for monetary policy beyond September last month
USD/JPY (¥111.14) is holding above the psychological ¥111 level as fixed income dealers price-in that the BoJ would not likely make any policy changes until at least October.
Elsewhere, China is letting the yuan slide primarily to combat a slackening economy, as the government rolls out more pro-growth measures amid an intensifying trade feud with the U.S.
5. German July Ifo business expectations lowest in four-months
German data this morning revealed that domestic business expectations fell further this month, albeit only marginally, according to the Ifo Institute’s monthly survey.
While the Ifo measure of the current business situation improved a bit, the expectations component hit its lowest level in two years.
The Ifo business climate index fell to 101.7 from 101.8 in June.
Note: It marks the lowest reading in 16 months.
“The German economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace,” said Clemens Fuest, the president of the Ifo Institute.
Digging deeper, uncertainty about global trade policy remains high, with potential tariffs on the auto sector being a key concern for Germany.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.