USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Drifting, U.S Retail Sales Jump
Kenny Fisher | Nov 15, 2018 12:43
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3229, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the United States. Retail sales rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7% in October, after a decline of 0.1% a month earlier. Core retail sales jumped 0.8%, after a gain of 0.1% in September. Elsewhere, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 12.9, shy of the estimate of 20.1 points. Unemployment claims edged higher to 216,000, above the estimate of 213,000. This was the highest reading since August. Canadian ADP nonfarm employment change came in at -23,000, its first decline since July. On Friday, Canada releases Manufacturing Sales.
On Wednesday, U.S. consumer inflation numbers beat their estimates for October. The consumer price index posted a gain of 0.3%, its strongest gain since January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices edged higher to 0.2%, marking a three-month high. Both releases were in line with forecasts. Core CPI was 2.1% higher than a year ago, and this solid release means that the Fed remains on track to continue raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve holds its next policy meeting in December, with the odds of a December rate hike at 72%, according to the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME).
The Canadian dollar continues to struggle in November. Earlier in the month, USD/CAD touched a high of 1.3264, its highest level since July. The currency tends to lose ground when risk appetite is low, and trouble spots such as U.S.-China relations, Brexit and the Italian budget crisis have unnerved global equity markets. A hawkish Federal Reserve has also led to investors snapping up U.S. dollars. With the U.S. economy firing on all cylinders and the Fed expected to continue its stance of gradual rate increases, the Canadian dollar could continue to face headwinds in November.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Friday (November 16)
- 8:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Estimate 0.1%
*All release times are DST
USD/CAD for Thursday, November 15, 2018
USD/CAD, November 15 at 8:10 EST
Open: 1.3242 High: 1.3250 Low: 1.3210 Close: 1.3229
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2970 | 13099 | 1.3198 | 1.3292 | 1.3383 | 1.3461 |
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USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session but then retracted. The pair showed little movement in the European session and is unchanged in the North American session
- 1.3198 is providing support
- 1.3292 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.3198 to 1.3292
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3198, 1.3099, 1.2970 and 1.2831
- Above: 1.3292, 1.3383 and 1.3461
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