USD/CAD At New Highs As Oil Tanks
Joe Perry | Feb 27, 2020 10:10
USD/CAD put in a new 4½ month high yesterday, near 1.3333, as crude oil is trading at its lowest levels in 13 months , with front month crude futures down another 2.5% yesterday. Canada is an oil-lead exporting country. As the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the world, the expectations continue to be that the demand for crude oil will be lower. As expectations for demand fall, so does the price of oil. As such, when the price of crude oil falls, so does that value of the Canadian dollar. The the daily chart of crude oil below, shows the current correlation coefficient is -.81 (which is actually off the lows from last week of near -1.00!)
On March 4, the Bank of Canada will meet again to discuss interest rates. The BoC has left rates unchanged since 2018 at 1.75%. At its last meeting, it took a slightly more dovish stance and said that they would closely monitor the economy and the recent global growth slowdown. That meeting was on Jan. 22. Although current expectations are for the BoC to remain on hold once again, a lot has changed since their last meeting when crude oil was at 56.74. Phase One of the U.S.-China trade deal was just signed a week earlier, and there wasn’t any talk of the coronavirus. Look how much can change in six weeks. They will have much to discuss.
USD/CAD has been in a symmetrical triangle since early 2016. At the end of 2019, price broke below the bottom, upward sloping trendline of the triangle (which dates back to 2012) and tested 1.3000. Price briefly traded into the 1.29 handle and bounced back into the apex of the triangle.
Notice on the 240-minute chart what happened at the last BoC meeting, when it turned from neutral to dovish. If it is even more dovish, price may continue higher. If price can close above current levels, there is horizontal resistance above at 1.3357. After that is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the highs on Nov. 20, 2019, to the lows on Dec. 31, at 1.3432. Above that is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the same time period which comes in at 1.3560. This also coincides with a previous peak in May of last year (on daily timeframe). Fist support is at yesterday's lows of 1.3271. Below that, Friday’s lows near 1.3200 and then the highs on the move after the BoC meeting on Jan. 22 near 1.3150.
Get The App
If crude does continue to move lower, one can expect USD/CAD to continue moving higher. In addition, if the BOC continues to be dovish at its interest rate decision meeting next week, USD/CAD also may continue higher. However, if crude starts to bounce (perhaps a relief bounce in the short term), USD/CAD could pull back, which may give traders another chance to buy before the BoC meeting.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.