Semiconductors on Verge of Breakout as Russell 2000 Holds Strong
Declan Fallon | Mar 27, 2023 02:59
"Hope" is a bad word in trading, but markets are holding up better than I expected. The Russell 2000 is the index to watch because of the import of growth stocks to secular bull markets, but also because it's the index closest to crashing.
Friday was important for the Russell 2000 (IWM), as the index started with a gap down. There was a significant risk of collapse, but buyers stepped in and delivered a close above support. This is key because Small Caps closed above support as defined by candlestick real bodies.
Buying volume was a little light, so there was no accumulation, but I would be okay if we did see some accumulation at some point in the coming week. Technicals are net negative, and while Friday's price gain was good, there was no improvement in supporting technicals.
Tech stocks have had a good week. There was a double breakout with declining and horizontal resistance taken out as technicals improved in the Nasdaq.
Meanwhile, semiconductors (SOX) have been performing exceptionally well and sit on the verge of a significant breakout. And this strength has represented itself in the Nasdaq. This doesn't look like an index about to collapse, which could spell good news for the struggling Russell 2000.
And the S&P 500 trades above declining resistance and its 200-day MA. Technicals are steadily improving, with a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume, to go with the earlier 'buy' trigger in the MACD.
However, other technicals are negative, which is reflected in price action closer to its most recent low versus the last swing high. However, my expectation would be for higher prices on Monday.
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Next week, I will look for the semiconductor Index to drive buying in tech stocks, which will then spread the love to the other indexes. My concern is the Russell 2000 had a good Friday, but it would only take one or two days of selling to drop it back into trouble.
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