Markets Retrench Big Moves, Bank Of Canada Preview
Colin Cieszynski | Jan 18, 2017 08:23
Markets don't go up and down in a straight line, every trade is a battle between bulls and bears. Because of this, it's not a surprise that after a series of major moves Tuesday, particularly in currencies where the USD went off a cliff and GBP exploded to the upside, we have been seeing trading corrections overnight.
Stock markets are trading slightly higher this morning with US index futures, the FTSE and the Dax all up about 0.2%. UK employment came in better than expected and showed wage inflation continuing to increase. Today, US consumer price inflation is due which may indicate is inflation pressures on the central banks are continuing to grow.
The inflation impact of commodity prices remains mixed. Copper is down 0.4% while crude oil is falling back again today with WTI down 1.3%. Today, oil traders appear to be more focused on the more immediate potential that US shale production could start to rise as soon as next month responding to recent gains that have pushed WTI back above $50. In contrast, the China forecast declines that boosted prices Tuesday are more likely to play out over the longer term.
The USD has staged a trading bounce overnight knocking JPY, GBP, EUR and CAD back in what look like normal trading corrections of big rallies and breakout point retests. Interestingly, gold is trading flat on to its recent gains. Political risk, particularly related to trade, and uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may do for the US economy could keep forex trading active for some time to come.
CAD could be active today between oil price and USD moves and today's Bank of Canada interest rate decision, monetary policy report and Poloz press conference. Recent Canadian economic data including employment, PMI and housing starts have been positive so there's no need for a rate cut. Similarly, with oil and CAD on the rise there's no need for a rate hike either. With a lot of uncertainty out there over how aggressive the Fed's rate hike program is going to be, Governor Poloz is likely to remain on hold for a while until the dust settles.
That being said, traders may look to the statement and press conference for confirmation Canada's economy is improving. The loonie could be impacted if any disappointments or dovish surprises emerge.
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