Is Inflation Really Easing, or Is it Just a Head Fake?
James Picerno | Dec 08, 2022 13:38
Inflation is easing, or so recent data shows. The debate is now centered on how fast and how far pricing pressure will slide — or if the recent easing is a head fake. In other words, it’s the perfect time to launch a resource that summarizes and updates several of the key inflation indicators that deserve close attention on a monthly basis: The US Inflation Trend Chartbook.
This report will be published shortly after each monthly release of US consumer price indexes.
Here’s a selection of charts from the current report. First up is comparison of variations on the standard headline consumer price index (CPI). Looking at the trends on a rolling one-year basis through October clearly shows that pricing pressure has peaked, although the level of inflation remains elevated vs. the pre-surge period.
The next chart shows the “bias” of the one-year changes in the chart above. Here, too, there’s a clear indication that the trend has turned lower in recent months. The average for the US Consumer Inflation Bias Indexes was negative for a second month in October. Since May, this measure of bias has been sub-zero for all but one month, a trend that suggests inflationary pressure will continue to ease.
A number of other indicators also show a clear break in the recent inflation surge. For example, the one-year changes in the US monetary base and industrial materials prices have been posting negative one-results recently.
Finally, here’s the current forecast for core CPI, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s ensemble modeling.
Get The App
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.