Investing.com | Apr 08, 2024 07:44
Gold continues to soar, marking new all-time highs and outperforming the S&P 500 with an impressive 13.7% surge since the beginning of the year.
Several factors are fueling this bullish trend:
With these factors expected to persist in the coming months, gold is poised for continued upward momentum. Some on Wall Street predict gold futures could reach $2,500.
Meanwhile, crude oil has also witnessed a significant uptrend this year. Brent futures, for example, started the year at $77.39 and surged to $91.90 last week.
Key drivers behind oil's rally include:
The focus now shifts to the $94-95 price range, which remains the mid-term target for the oil bulls.
This pattern in the S&P 500 is quite intriguing and typically reliable, and we're currently experiencing it.
Here's how it works: if the S&P 500 doesn't end the first quarter below the lowest point it reached in December, it tends to end the rest of the year with strong gains.
Looking at the data from the past 73 years, we see that this pattern was triggered in 37 instances, and it succeeded in 36 of them, with only one failure (in 2015 with a -0.7% return).
On average, the return for the rest of the year is +11.2%, and for the full year, it's +18.8%.
Since the index closed above that level this quarter, could we expect to see stocks, gold, and crude oil prices rise together?
Only time will tell.
So goes the ranking of the world's major stock exchanges so far in 2024:
Bullish sentiment, i.e. expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months is at 47.3% and remains above its historical average of 37.5%.
Bearish sentiment, i.e. expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, is at 22.2% and remains below its historical average of 31%.
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