Air Canada: With Their 70% International Revenue Spike, Are Rivals Left Grounded?

Robust Earnings and Driving Growth International Markets/h2

Air Canada (TSX:AC) Inc., Canada's largest airline, delivered solid financial performance in the second quarter of 2023, surpassing market expectations and showing strong growth potential. The company's impressive earnings report, with an EPS of $1.35 and revenue of $4.04 billion, indicates effective cost management and operational efficiency. Additionally, Air Canada's strategic initiatives, partnerships, and focus on diversification contribute to its growth trajectory and make it an attractive investment opportunity in the airline industry. A key driver of Air Canada's growth is the significant increase in passenger revenues, particularly in international markets, which accounted for nearly 70% of the growth in Q2 2023. The company successfully tapped into the premium segment, with a 42% growth in premium revenues, indicating its ability to capture a larger market share. This growth, coupled with favorable pricing in operating markets and strategic partnerships, strengthens Air Canada's position and potential for further expansion.

Strategic Expansion in Freight Operations and Rise in RPM/h2

Air Canada has strategically addressed the decline in cargo revenues by expanding its freighter operations and increasing its fleet from two Boeing (NYSE:BA) 767 aircraft in Q2 2022 to six in Q2 2023. This adaptive approach demonstrates the company's ability to effectively manage market shifts and enhance its revenue prospects. Air Canada's operational efficiency is highlighted by its impressive rise in revenue per miles (RPMs) across its sectors. The Canada sector witnessed a significant recovery with a 9.9% increase in RPMs, while the Atlantic sector experienced a remarkable ascent with a 32.1% growth in Q2 2023. The Pacific sector displayed substantial growth, with RPMs skyrocketing by 143.5%. These figures indicate Air Canada's ability to optimize its operations and efficiently address the growing demand.

Revenue Per Miles & Available Seat Per Miles breakdown/h2

Sector	Metric	Q2 2023	Q2 2022	% Change Q2	H1 2023	H1 2022	% Change H1	% Contribution to Total (Q2 2023)
Canada	RPMs	4,673	4,252	9.9%	8,465	6,754	25.4%	21.6%
Canada	ASMs	5,455	5,217	4.6%	10,061	8,864	13.5%	22.2%
U.S. transborder	RPMs	3,793	3,682	3.0%	7,536	6,674	12.9%	17.5%
U.S. transborder	ASMs	4,436	4,655	-4.7%	8,976	7,536	19.2%	18.1%
Atlantic	RPMs	8,345	6,314	32.1%	13,366	9,226	45.0%	38.6%
Atlantic	ASMs	9,291	7,838	18.5%	15,193	11,991	26.7%	37.8%
Pacific	RPMs	2,966	1,218	143.5%	5,747	1,788	221.3%	13.7%
Pacific	ASMs	3,202	1,544	107.3%	6,302	2,444	157.9%	13.0%
Other	RPMs	1,840	1,663	10.6%	5,081	3,367	50.9%	8.5%
Other	ASMs	2,222	2,050	8.4%	5,981	4,655	28.5%	9.0%
System	RPMs	21,617	16,371	32.0%	40,195	25,852	55.4%	100%
System	ASMs	24,606	20,331	21.0%	46,513	34,628	34.3%	100%

Capacity Expansion and Plans for Revenue Enhancement/h2

Air Canada's total operating expenses rose by 9% while operating capacity surged by 21% in Q2 2023. Although there was a decrease in aircraft fuel expenses, other expenses such as salaries, wages, and benefits increased, reflecting the company's growth in full-time employees. Cost management remains in focus for Air Canada to optimize its operations amidst inflation and capacity expansion. Looking ahead, Air Canada is strategically positioned to leverage future growth opportunities. The airline's commitment to maximizing sixth freedom traffic, enhanced customer engagement through the Aeroplan program, and a novel distribution strategy incorporating advanced NDC technology are expected to boost revenue and reduce distribution costs.

Diversifying the Fleet and Customer Attraction/h2

Air Canada's fleet expansion plans, including the addition of Airbus A321XLRs, A220-300s, and Boeing 737 MAX 8s, highlight the company's efforts to modernize and diversify its fleet for global reach. The incorporation of freighters further demonstrates Air Canada's commitment to cargo operations and sustainable growth. Industry recognition, such as being named North America's Favorite Airline, enhances Air Canada's credibility and reputation, attracting and retaining a broader customer base. Strategic diversification through subsidiaries, Air Canada Rouge and Air Canada Vacations, allows the company to cater to a wide range of travelers and tap into the tourism sector.

Conclusion/h2

In conclusion, Air Canada's strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, operational efficiency, and growth opportunities make it an attractive investment option in the airline industry. The company's ability to adapt to market shifts, expand its network, and enhance customer experiences are key factors contributing to its long-term success. Considering the given factors, the stock currently priced appears cheap and merits a buy rating with a target price of $32.50 over a reasonable time frame of over a year.

Disclosure: We don’t hold any position in the stock.

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